Political Roundtable: News, Opinion and Commentary

Politico has the story, and it’s worth a read.

Here’s the crux:

In a hypothetical matchup between Hillary Clinton and Rudy Giuliani, bloc after bloc of traditionally Republican voters break for Clinton:

She wins the South.

She polls evenly with voters who attend church at least once a week.

She splits families with a household income above $100,000.

She loses rural voters and men — but only by a narrow margin.

All are constituencies Republicans have dominated for decades; George W. Bush won each by double-digit margins.

The findings from The Pew Research Center for the People & the Press remain preliminary, considering even the primaries are still two months off.

But Pew questioned an unusually large number of voters to try to paint the most accurate picture possible of where the presidential contest stands today.

Should the race continue down its current trajectory, the poll finds Clinton defeating Giuliani by eight percentage points.

First, on Giuliani. This is pretty damaging, as his main claim to the Republican mantle has been his electability, and this poll severely undermines that. The specter of not even carrying the South against Clinton could prove to be a major turning point in the Republican primary. It should also be noted that this news comes on the heels of the attack on Giuliani by Biden last night; the Giuliani campaign has resorted to attacking Biden back, but frankly that’s too easy a target, and not the real issue. All the retorts back by Giuliani and his supporters have been at Biden, and not on what he said, which actually got a big laugh. As pointed out earlier, it seems clear that Giuliani recognizes this himself. In fact, a little humor by him himself might go a long way towards capitalizing on it. The worse news is that with this bit fresh in everyone’s mind, now this poll comes out: suddenly, Giuliani’s two biggest pillars of his campaign - his performance on 9/11 and his electability - are both undermined. That’s not an easy problem to overcome, as normally Giuliani could focus on the other when pressed on one. But given his demeanor, he’s not going to back down, and I expect him to go to work immediately on a campaign to mitigate the poll number (although it’s large sample size may make that difficult) and salvage his reputation. But if Giuliani doesn’t win the nomination, I’d recommend looking back to this week, as these events and his response are going to be crucial.

As for Clinton, after the disappointing night she had last night (to put it mildly), this is really welcome news for her campaign. It underscores her electability compared to both Obama (who might have bigger problems in the South) and Edwards (who certainly could not be any better).

Now, I’ve gone on record as saying I don’t like national polls. I still don’t. But that doesn’t change the very real political impact that a poll like this will have.

Also, it should be noted that given their relative notoriety and that they’re running national campaigns, a poll like this is slightly more reliable.

But it should be still taken with a giant pail of salt. Right, Michael?

LGBT supporters of John Edwards are making a renewed push for their candidate, in a letter sent to media this afternoon arguing, among other things, that “Edwards is the Democrat with the best chance to regain the White House against all of the top Republican candidates and offers the best chance to help Democrats get elected in some of the toughest races in the country because of his appeal in traditionally ‘red’ areas.” Read the letter here. (PDF)

i have been to a few of Ron Paul’s campus visits and its like going to a rock concert….loud!

young people see what the end of this long and winding road has in store for them.. they will have to work harder, longer, even less job security, no real wage growth and a lifestyle less fitting than any generation previous. not too mention loss of more basic liberties.

we have $60 trillion in entitlements due in the next 20 years, we are already $9 trillion in debt and borrowing more than $3 billion a day to pay for our warfare-welfare state. where are we going to get $60+ trillion????

then the Federal Reserve just prints money out of thin air to come up with all the shortfall in our spending. this causing inflation which lowers the value of our dollar and spending power. this is called the inflation tax. a distribution of wealth from the poor and middle class to the rich.

all the above spell doom and gloom for our country’s future, especially our young. in the NY Post(10/31/07) NYC Mayor Bloomberg is forecasting this very scenario and has issued a warning. unfortunately too many are just laughing it away.

the problem is neither party candidates have a solution. the Democrats will tax and spend us to oblivion, while the neo-cons will borrow and spend us to ruin. i see both being utilized by both parties. they love power and YOU love “free” stuff. it will all come to an end, all too soon.

this is why young people are rallying behind Ron Paul. they know, they see and they want to fix it NOW.

here is a great article from a rally in Iowa University past week. explains very well this phenomenon with young Americans.

cheers



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