Political Roundtable: News, Opinion and Commentary

We get mail.  An email this afternoon was better than most:  

February 4:

“Despite this muddled outcome, we expect to maintain our current overall lead in delegates on February 6.” - Howard Wolfson

February 4:

“that they expect to be ahead in total delegates (including super delegates) after tomorrow’s contests” - campaign officials on a conference call

February 8:

“We feel very good about Ohio and Texas, which are the next big contests that vote after Wisconsin and Hawaii,” Howard Wolfson

February 10:

“I haven’t had the pleasure of campaigning in Virginia as much as I would have liked.” - Hillary Clinton

February 13:

“Could we possibly have a nominee who hasn’t won any of the significant states — outside of Illinois?” - Mark Penn

“We do better the more voters vote. The largest turnout primaries, by in large, are the ones that have favored us. …The presidential election is not a caucus; it’s an election for the most people to get out and vote.” - Howard Wolfson

February 13:

“It’s not a factor,” Hillary Clinton, [on] Obama victories in Maine, Nebraska, Louisiana, Virgin Islands and Washington state in an interview with WJLA and Politico on Monday.

“We had a great night on Super Tuesday. We’re winning the states that we have to win. The big states that are really going to determine whether the Democrats win,” - Hillary Clinton

Clinton has laughed out loud when asked about her losses in red state bastions such as Kansas and other caucus states, backhanding them as products of her own party “activists” and not real voters.

February 17:

“We’re going to win the primary,” -Garry Mauro Clinton’s Texas coordinator

February 19:

“We haven’t seen any evidence of support dropping,” - Averell “Ace” Smith, Clinton’s Texas state chair.

“[Texas and Ohio are] real battlegrounds,” Obama is “pulling out all the stops to do all they can” in Texas and that the race will be “hotly contested.” - Howard Wolfson

February 19:

“[We’ll] concede absolutely nothing.” - Hillary Clinton

February 20:

“winning Democratic primaries is not a qualification or a sign of who can win the general election.” - Mark Penn

February 20:

“We don’t expect any particular margin,” - Harold Ickes

“We expect to do well [in Texas and Ohio. But] there is no question that they are critically, critically important,” - Howard Wolfson

February 20:

 ”We expect to do well in both those states, but 65 percent is a far reach and there is no expectation here that we’re going to hit that number.” - Harold Ickes

“We’re in the neighborhood of about 75 delegates behind, that is less that 3 percent of the total number of delegates who have been elected. We expect to narrow that gap substantially by the end of this process,” Harold Ickes

February 21:

“I had no idea how bizarre it [Texas’ system] is.  We have grown men crying over it.” - Hillary Clinton

February 22:

“You probably like it that it has come down to Texas…If she wins Texas and Ohio, I think she will be the nominee. If you don’t deliver for her then I don’t think she can be. It’s all on you.” - Bill Clinton

February 25:

“I think we do have to win in Texas, and I think we will win in Texas if we work hard.” - Chelsea Clinton

February 26:

“It would be tragic if Hillary were to win this election in the daytime and somebody were to come in at night and take it away” - Bill Clinton

February 27:

“and at that time [last spring] I said we have got to start thinking about Texas” - Hillary Clinton

February 29:

“If he cannot win all of these states with all this effort, there’s a problem.” - Clinton Campaign Memo

Okay, I posted a few shots from last night here, and I’ve already got multiple email requests and posts on forums asking how to do this. It’s “storm season” in much of the country right now, so hereOkay, I posted a few shots from last night here, and I’ve already got multiple email requests and posts on forums asking how to do this. It’s “storm season” in much of the country right now, so here’s a shpeel on how to make these shots happen.

Here’s a favorite from last year - shot on top of a parking garage in downtown Phoenix.

WARNING:

1. This is extremely dangerous. I can’t stress that enough. You’ve got a very real chance of being struck by lightning so realize that before running after the next storm. You’re generally out in the open, someplace high off the ground, standing on wet ground with a metal tripod. Do the math. Bolts can drop out of a cell and travel over 20 miles before hitting the ground - so if you’re close enough to see it, you’re close enough for it to reach out and zap you.

2. You want to be inside a full metal body car (not an open top jeep, etc) as much as possible with your hands off of the metal parts. As long as you’re inside the car with your feet off the ground, you’re pretty well safe. I often setup the tripod right outside the car door, then hop back inside running the cable release through the open window - I sit inside in relative safety while I click.

The “How To”:

1. First you’ve got to find a predictable shot - find a cell with some good activity that’s repeating flashes at least every 2 minutes. Hunting lightning is like fishing - sometimes you get it, sometimes you waste your time. Patience is key here. You’ve got to predict where the cell is moving, at what speed, and how to get into a good viewing location around it while staying safe at the same time.

2. Wider angles have a better chance of catching the strike if it’s off of your aim point, but the strike will be smaller in your viewfinder. For something really bold and dramatic you can enlarge well, you need to have a tighter shot - which means a more predictably active part of the sky. Dig? I’ll shoot 15mm if I’m not sure or if it’s getting really close to me, or maybe 35-70mm range if it’s a bit further away and happening in one particular spot.

3. Lock your camera down on a tripod. Focus to infinity manual on your lens (note most pro lenses will focus ‘past’ infinity, so you need to back it off just a bit of the end stop or your pics won’t be sharp - experiment on a clear day to test this). Get your zoom set and frame up your shot.

4. You really need a cable release, or “remote trigger” button. I use the RS-80N3 - works on all Canon cameras and worth having in your bag. You can also get the super high tech version - the TC-80N3 which has a built in cycle timer and other goodies. This may be on a future shopping list for me.

5. Shoot manual of course. You can either “use the force” and time your shots by hand using Bulb mode, or you can use your light meter and let your camera time the shots for you. It all depends on ambient lighting here. If the sun is still up or it’s still dusk out, or you’re in a metro area - then you need shorter exposures to avoid over exposing. If it’s dead dark except for the storm, you can get away with 1 minute plus exposures. This is where you get to be a photographer and figure it out for yourself a bit along the way.

6. Shoot in Raw!!! You’ll never get anything but a white strike on a black sky shooting jpeg. You need the extra dynamic range in Raw to pull this off. Export as 16 bit TIFF to Photoshop, tweak as necessary with curves and saturation, clone out the water spots on your lens, flatten, and export Jpeg’s to the correct size while keeping your 16 bit originals saved as PSD’s.

7. A good starting point….

Dusk / Visible Light:
ISO 100, f/4, ~10 sec exposures. (Let your light meter guide your exposure time)

Full Dark:
ISO 100, f/4, ~30 seconds to 1 minute.

For really active cells, you just Bulb it by holding the button, let a few flashes happen, when you think you’ve filled your shot with enough, release.

Practice Practice Practice:

Unlike every other type of photography, there is no “easy” way to do this. You’re camera doesn’t have a “lightning” mode, so there is a certain amount of trial and error here. You’ve got to guess when the strike will happen and have your shutter open at that time. You’ll shoot a whole lot of empty frames to catch that one strike. I probably average one good catch per every 30 exposures. That’s just the name of the game. I used to shoot this on Velvia film which got real expensive.

That’s part of the fun. It’s dangerous, it’s exciting, you have to get into position, setup, and dial in the shot quickly to make it happen - but once you figure out the basics, it really is pretty easy.

Depending on the intensity of the strikes and how close they are - adjust your ISO, f/stop and exposure time all together as needed. After every strike do a quick view of your LCD and histogram and see if you got it right, adjust as needed.

Remember, lightning is BRIGHT - adjust your f/stop and ISO as needed to get the intensity of the flashes exposing about right - don’t blow them out or you’ll loose all the cool purple / yellow color. Lower ISO means less noise as the flash lights the clouds. Lower ISO also means longer exposure times, which means your shutter is open more of the time, which means you’ve got a better chance of catching a strike.

Challenge:

The challenge (once you catch a strike or two) is to create an interesting picture with it. Anyone can point at open sky and catch a strike. The key is to get some foreground into the shot - give it presence and location. Get the foreground in there, use other objects to silhouette the sky - like a cactus or a barn.

Have fun - and be careful!! If you do get something cool, email it to me - I’d love to see it.

John Dickerson:

… the ad also raises a new question the Clinton campaign has been stressing over the last few days: Who has been tested? The ad asks which candidate has faced the extended pressure of a crisis that might prepare him or her for the far larger pressures and crises he or she will face as president.

I love this question and am glad the Clinton team raised it. The problem is that they’re not so great at answering. When I asked campaign staffers for examples of Clinton being tested by a foreign-policy challenge, their response was pretty weak. As Patrick Healy reported in the New York Times, Hillary Clinton did not have a security clearance during her husband’s administration, so she wasn’t in the room for the brutal moments he faced. Her aides named the slew of uniformed retired military officials who have endorsed her, including several four-star generals. That’s nice, but it’s not proof of her mettle. When you make an ad like this, your case for your woman should be stronger than a list of endorsements.

Mark Penn pointed me to Clinton’s 1995 speech in Beijing, in which she declared that women’s rights were human rights. A fine speech and a great message, and boy, I bet her hosts didn’t like it one bit, but that doesn’t really constitute the testing that this powerful ad brings to mind. Also, if we’re talking about speeches, then I think Obama has that covered. He has been arguing for some time that he made a speech in 2002 about why the Iraq war was a bad idea. And hasn’t the Clinton team been knocking that back as just a speech?

A Clinton spokesperson on Hardball tonight claimed that Senator Clinton had proved her mettle under fire by attending the 1995 World Conference on Women in Beijing. I’m serious.

Update: See also Matt Yglesias.



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