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James Dobson, the founder of Focus on the Family, a conservative, nonprofit organization that wields widespread influence among Christian Republicans, has come, oh, so close to endorsing the presumptive Republican nominee, Sen. John McCain. For the past year Dobson, who endorsed George W. Bush in 2004, has been mainly saying which Republican he would not endorse–Rudy Giuliani because he was pro-choice, Fred Thompson because he opposed the marriage amendment and, at one point, McCain because of restrictions that the McCain-Feingold campaign finance reforms put on nonprofit communications with members about political issues. At one time Dobson even suggested he might not vote for the first time in his adult life if the candidates didn't meet his standards of being antiabortion and for family values. That could have caused millions of religious conservatives to stay home on Nov. 4. Dobson once said Mitt Romney would qualify as a pro-family candidate. But when he dropped out of the GOP race, Dobson endorsed Mike Huckabee for his "unwavering positions on social issues." From their mountainside headquarters in Colorado Springs, Dobson and Focus reach millions of conservative evangelicals daily through their website, newsletters and his radio broadcasts. The concern among Republican operatives has not been that conservatives with some lingering doubts about McCain's, say, initial opposition to the Bush tax cuts would vote for Sens. Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama, whose Democratic party members have turned out in large numbers all election season. The GOP concern has been instead that a lack of enthusiasm among…. conservatives and Republicans would cause a low turnout on that side come November. But last night Dobson appeared to ease that worry. Stressing that he was speaking as an individual, Dobson did not actually endorse McCain — yet. But he did tell Sean Hannity on the Fox News Channel that though he has "problems" with all three remaining presidential candidates, especially the two Democrats, he fully intended to vote on Nov. 4. That was a signal to his followers that they might have to settle for the least-worst candidate, namely McCain. "Let me just say," Dobson said, "that I will certainly vote. I think we have a God-given responsibility to vote, and there are all of the candidates and the issues down the ballot that we have an obligation to weigh in on and let our voices be heard." Told that McCain had assured Hannity he would keep the pro-life and pro-marriage plans in the Republican platform, Dobson asked, "Did he give you a commitment about embryonic stem-cell research?" Hannity said, No. "That's an important one for me," Dobson replied. (UPDATE: A spokesman for the McCain campaign declined comment late this evening.) –Andrew Malcolm
The Democrats are in deep trouble. As the race between front-runners Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama drags on, the party is being split in two. The Democrats are famous for snatching defeat from the jaws of victory and this election year may be another nail in their coffin. It’s surprising that this is happening. Almost as surprising as seeing a woman and a black man being serious contenders for the highest office in the land. Not too long ago, it looked like the Democrats had this election in the bag. The war in Iraq was unpopular and the economy was looking worse with each passing week, all points that traditionally play in the Democrats’ favor. However, they have been unable to use this advantage. Instead of unifying, rallying under their anti-war, economic stimulus platform and waltzing into the White House, they are tied up in a seemingly endless feud in their own party. Instead of attacking John McCain, the candidates are busy tearing each other to pieces. It’s true that Clinton’s popularity is slipping in favor of Obama, but her delegate count is secure, for now. It seems, in this commentator’s opinion that Clinton should back out now before it’s too late for her party. Many of her colleagues agree and are calling for her to withdraw from the race. Her hands are stained with political blood now, but she is too stubborn to get out of the way and do what’s right for the Democratic Party. It seems that the Clintons aren’t used to defeat. In any case, the Democratic Party is in danger of being torn clean in half, with an astonishing number of Obama supporters claiming that they’d rather vote Republican than vote for Clinton and vice versa. This division could prove fatal for the party unless the less popular candidate gets out now, so that everyone can get used to the nominee. If it drags on past the Pennsylvania primary, then the Democrats may repeat their crash-and-burn routine which has been so entertaining over the past eight years, with a half-crazed Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama fighting for control and steering the party into the ground. For Democrats, this is a nightmare scenario, one that they are all too familiar with. For the Republicans, they’re no doubt rolling in the aisle of the Capital Building and making plans for John McCain’s inauguration celebration. All he has to do is wait the Democrats out while he silently gathers supporters from their own ranks and lets Clinton and Obama do all his campaigning for him. He’s in a strong position, but anything can happen. It’s been a wild, unpredictable election year so far, and it’s a long way to November 4th. Al Gore, anyone? Today is Monday, March 31, 2008 - 295 days until the next President of the United States is sworn into office.
The battle for the Democratic nomination has been unique for many reasons, not the least of which has been the fact that neither candidate has really been able to generate and then maintain momentum enough to seal the nomination (see Obama after Iowa, Clinton after New Hampshire, Obama after his post Feb. 5th run and Clinton after March 4th.) Each candidate’s inability to make momentum stick has been reflected not only in electoral results that counter the then prevailing winds, but also in the national polling, especially the daily tracking polls, which have see-sawed between Clinton and Obama for weeks. Last week, in an apparent response to the Obama’s well-received speech on race as well as the controversy over Clinton’s sniper fire claims, Obama appeared to perhaps begin to pull away. Today, however, the rolling averages in both the Rasmussen tracking poll and the Gallup tracking poll are ticking back in Clinton’s direction. Gallup:
Obama 51 (52, 50…) Rasmussen:
Obama 46 (47, 48…) It’s too early, of course, to know whether or not this will continue or if it’s a daily quirk (or it could be due to what Pollster’s Mark Blumenthal calls the day-of-week effect) but if recent history is a guide, it’s likely just the latest return of the race back to what is essentially a draw, a further sign that Obama and Clinton are likely to trade the national lead through the June contests. Now, obviously a presidential contest can’t actually be a draw, there has to be a winner and a loser, which is why this proposal from Gov. Mario Cuomo yesterday was so intriguing:
Who can solve the problem? While conventional wisdom would have it that this “dream ticket” is an impossibility due to the divisive nature of the primary recently, Cuomo’s framing it as a means of uniting the party and giving supporters the best of both worlds could give it renewed momentum, especially since supporters of both are likely to feel their candidate’s not being on the ticket would be akin to having been robbed. Now, Obama has always been my first choice for Clinton’s VP pick should she win the nomination, but thinking about possible VP picks for him, I keep coming back to Hillary Clinton, mostly because she complements him both in style and constituency support. I really do think no matter who is on the top of such a ticket, it would be absolutely unbeatable. That is, as long as partisans on each side can swallow their pride should their candidate be relegated to the VP slot. Tags: 2008 presidential election, democratic nomination, hillary clinton, barack obama, mario cuomo (all tags)
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