 |
|
Memo from Harold Ickes; May 1, 2008 A spate of new public polls out this week confirms what we have been arguing for some time: Hillary Clinton is the strongest candidate to beat John McCain in November. The data shows that Clinton not only outperforms Obama in head-to-head matchups, but is also stronger in the all important subcategories that serve as bellwethers for a candidate’s overall strength. In addition, new data out today in three swing states vital to Democratic prospects in November show Clinton beating McCain. HEAD-TO-HEAD WITH MCCAIN: In a hypothetical general election match-up with McCain, Clinton wins handily (50-41) while Obama is virtually tied with McCain (46-44), according to the AP-Ipsos poll released Monday. A new poll from CBS/NYT show Clinton beating McCain by five points (48-43), while Obama ties McCain (45-45). The new Fox poll has Clinton beating McCain by one point (45-44), while Obama trails McCain by three points (43-46). And in Gallup’s daily tracking poll, Clinton leads McCain by one point (46-45) while Obama trails McCain by two points (44-46). SWING STATES: New Quinnipiac polls out today show Clinton dramatically outperforms Obama in the critical swing states of Ohio and Florida. In Ohio, Clinton beats McCain by ten points (48-38), while Obama loses to him by one point (43-44). In Florida, Clinton beats McCain by 8 (49-41), while Obama loses to him by one point (42-43). Hillary also tops McCain by 14 points in Pennsylvania (51-37), while Obama’s lead over McCain is in single digits. BEATS MCCAIN AMONG INDEPENDENT VOTERS; OBAMA TIES HIM: The new AP poll has Clinton leading McCain among independents (50-34) while Obama is tied with him (42-42). The NBC/WSJ poll notes that Obama’s negative ratings among independents are they highest they have ever been. IS THE CANDIDATE VOTERS TRUST WITH THE ECONOMY: The economy is the top issue among voters and is likely to remain so through November. In the CBS/NYT poll, Hillary beat both Obama and McCain as the candidate who is talking about the economy most by a margin of 25% to Obama’s 13% and McCain’s 7%. OBAMA UNFAVORABLES RISING QUICKLY: In the CBS/NYT poll, Obama’s unfavorables increased by ten points in the last month (24 to 34%) while his favorables decreased by four points. In the CBS/NYT poll, Obama’s unfavorables among independents rose to 31%. The Fox poll shows that in the last two months, Obama’s unfavorables have increased by nine points (33 to 42%) while his favorables decreased by seven points (54 to 47%). In the NBC/Wall Street Journal poll, Obama’s negative ratings increased by five points in the last month (32 to 37%) while his positive ratings decreased by three points in the last month (49 to 46%). STRONGEST AMONG SWING VOTING BLOCS: The new AP-Ipsos poll shows Clinton leading McCain among seniors (51-39) but has McCain BEATING Obama (49-38). She runs stronger against McCain with those under 30 than Obama does, pulling two-thirds of the young vote while Obama gets 55% against McCain. And she wins the Catholic vote against McCain (58-35) while McCain beats Obama (46-43).
The big question today: Who do the Republicans really want to run against, Barack or Hillary? It looks as though Chris Matthews, of CNBC’s Hardball, has nailed it. He has noticed several prominent Republicans coming to the rescue of Hillary, namely Bill Kristol in his article this Monday in the Washington Post, also, Pat Buchanan and Rush Limbaugh, to name just a few. I think Chris is right on this one. They are all saying Hillary deserves more respect. They say she a candidate who is fighting to compete and deserves praise and credit for what she has done and would make a more formidable candidate, according to these Republicans. But why would they be raising her candidacy? What’s their reason? What do they gain if she does better and becomes the nominee? Is Karl Rove nailing this one too and giving the playbook to Republicans in hopes of getting more Independents to vote for her in the remaining primaries? Do they just want to see this go on, as it is good for them? I think they would love to run against Hillary because, as many have said, the war in Iraq is the issue in the background, but very much there, and Republicans know that if things get worse, they have a chance against Hillary, as she voted as McCain did to give the President authorization to go to war with Iraq. If the war is not a front issue, they know that McCain and Hillary are on the same page on so many issues like suspending the gas tax for the summer months to help consumers temporarily ( Barack is against it as it is a gimmick), and other issues like Energy policy, to name just two issue. They know that the electorate can be fooled, as they have been many times. They are counting on those that are listening to the news and still engaged to consider Hillary for their choice. To me that is another good reason to vote for Barack Obama. What do you think about the Republicans speaking out in praise of Hillary? And don’t just tell me, “Well she has done so well recently and deserves it.” Tell me more about Republican motives here.
Alright, so Saturday is the Democratic Territorial Convention for Guam, and since I’ll be on the road tomorrow, I’m going to put up my prediction tonight. Tomorrow, 8 of the 13 (or 4 of the 9 actual votes) delegates will be decided:
These 8 delegates are only worth half a vote each when going to the convention, so I’m guessing that it will round out to 2 and 2, with 5 Superdelegates, worth 5 votes going as well. I really don’t think Clinton is going to get above 63.33%, which would give her 6 delegates, so I’m pretty confident in my prediction of 2-2 delegates (that gives me QUITE a bit of wiggle room, so Obama could actually win, and the final delegate vote prediction could be right - kinda cheap, I know). Unfortunately, with so few primaries/caucuses/conventions going on, all focus has turned to Indiana and North Carolina (next Tuesday), so I won’t be able to live blog this one (there’s just nowhere to find the information as results come in - even the Guam Democratic Party doesn’t have a website with the information), so I’ll either post the results Saturday or Sunday, depending on when they come in. Done Predicting, Ranting Republican
|
Categories
Site DirectoryFavorites
|
