Batchelor: The Clintons Vs. The Obamas

My Top 3

John Batchelor, known to RBO/RW readers from both earlier articles and his Sunday night radio show (RBO posts each week’s program schedule), writes:

The War of the Roses

Mrs. Clinton is the obvious potent choice for the vice-presidency for Barack Obama, and that it does not happen is all the proof needed to show that the two camps have spiraled quickly into a war for succession, a 21st century War of the Roses, the white and the red. Speaking Sunday 10 with my professionals, Avlon, Crowley, Fund, Johnson, McTague, Unger, Ververs, Whalen, and also with Matt Bai, NYT, of the loud, loud noises in the Democratic Party that the split continues and is getting worse. The moving story has many fronts, however there are three major themes that are headed for the Denver Convention in two weeks, race, gender, and eighteen million votes unanswered.

The Race Card

Bill Clinton is peeved that he was abused during the primary campaign as a racist. The case against him was trite; the wound is not. From remarks the president made recently in Monrovia, Liberia, of all places, “I am not a racist…”, this is not going away. It will get worse. When Senator Obama tried a version of the race card on John McCain after the “Celeb” ad, the McCain campaign hit back very hard with language from the O.J. Simpson trial about “playing the race card from the bottom of the deck.” It was rough and daring, and, according to Howard Wolfson of the Clinton campaign, it was skillful and a product of watching the Obamas versus the Clintons. Whenever the race card is played, there is no verdict. The accusation is all. And ever since that day, the Obama campaign has been on the defensive in all areas, as if it has lost its footing. Is Bill Clinton vindicated? Yes. Is this more evidence that the battle between the Clintons and the Obamas continue, with McCain as a proxy battleground? Yes, and more crudely, there is the hint of a plan for the Clintons. Do nothing to defend Obama from the McCain counter strikes on the race card, and watch Obama wither.

Gender

Mrs. Clinton’s supporters, the PUMAs, are passionate and convincing that their candidate was abused by the media because she was not male. Again, the verdict is impossible to reach; the accusation is all. My correspondence with the PUMAs leads me, a definite outsider, to see the strength of the case that Mrs. Clinton was treated poorly by the media, by her own party’s officials, and by her party’s progressive left that contributes youth and contrariness. What is critical now is that the women supporters to Mrs. Clinton are loyal, unshaken, focused, skillful and innovative. I read The Real Barack Obama and No Quarter and Texas Darlin’ regularly. These are strong players. And I am surprised to hear from more than one good source inside PUMA that the Obamas are treating these women as if they are amateurs, brats, flacks for the GOP. The blindness of the Obamas is stunning. ABC News puts up a video now on Youtube that shows Mrs. Clinton addressing PUMAs in California. She is asked to allow her name to be put into nomination at Denver. All polite discourse. She does not say no, and there is cheering.

“…I know from just what I’m hearing that there’s just this incredible pent-up desire. And I think that people want to feel like, O.K., it’s a catharsis, we’re here, we did it, and then everybody get behind Senator Obama. That is what most people believe is the best way to go. No decisions have been

At the same time, another source of mine, not inside PUMA, but a strong Democrat, tells me that the Clinton supporters are being treated very badly right now by the Denver leaders and by the Chicago party, chiefly Howard Dean and his associates. It is too late. This will be a Denver glaring match. I expect Ann Lewis will do a deal of TV with the roar of a PUMA.

The Eighteen Million

Race and gender are two vote-getting issues for the Democratic Party, and I see the fight between the camps as sophisticated and unpredictable. On the third theme, the votes for Mrs. Clinton in the primaries, I find it easy to judge and choose. Mr. Obama is asking for trouble when he prevents Mrs. Clinton’s name to be placed into nomination, with speeches and seconding and a floor demonstration to follow. It is foolish to pretend that this is Mr. Obama’s party to direct. The party chooses him; he is a tool of the party. The rules that guided his presumed victory are fleeting, odd, most unreliable, and there has never been a moment since the last primary in June that Mr. Obama had a certain grasp. Mrs. Clinton remains a strong choice. That she will not be the nominee still seems the world turned upside down. Those eighteen million votes must be treated with respect and fear all the way to Election Day and beyond.

Rumors

And then there are the rumors that Mr. Obama’s poll numbers in battleground states such as Ohio are dropping or not rising, and that the party bosses know this to be true and still won’t speak up. The War of the Roses grows self-destructive. There are also rumors that Mrs. Clinton will support Barack Obama on the trail but that Mr. Clinton has an uncertain role. There is also the fact that the tracking polls show Mr. Obama weakening nationally, not just in battlegrounds, and that he may be stuck at 46%. There is also the rumor that Mr.Obama is leaning toward the surprise pick of Joe Biden of Delaware, though there is a caveat that Michelle Obama is said to disfavor Mr. Biden. I like the Biden rumor because it is based on the report that the Obama campaign was polling about Biden in Iowa. The War of the Roses won’t end anytime soon, and Joe Biden’s perpetual gab will make the nasty bits seem funny.

And do I think the Clintons will watch in silence at Denver? Much worse. The Clintons will smile and raise their hands in the kind of praise that only the once and future royal couple can manage.