A new poll released by the Gallup organization on Thursday shows Jewish voters over John McCain by more than 3 to 1, with 74% saying they will vote for Obama over 22% for McCain
The poll, which has interviewed over 650 Jewish registered voters each month since June, shows American Jews growing increasingly comfortable with Obama since July, when the Illinois Senator tied up the Democratic Party nomination. The poll shows support for McCain among Jews stood at a high of 34% in June, before beginning its downward turn in July after Obama’s nomination.
The highest level of support for Obama according to the poll is among Jews over the age of 55, 74% of which have said they’re voting for Obama over 67% of Jews 18 to 34. The Gallup organization says the disparity could be based on a greater inclination among Jews 18 to 34 to call themselves Conservative, but says a similar inclination isn’t apparent among Jews aged 35 to 54, 68% of which polled by Gallup have said they’re voting Obama.
According to the Haaretz News Service, the poll’s findings show that in spite of a certain measure of trepidation among some Jewish voters towards Obama early in his campaign, he is set to receive the same percentage of the Jewish vote (74%) as John Kerry in 2004, and only slightly less than the 80% of the Jewish vote that Al Gore received in 2000 when he had a Jewish running mate in Joe Lieberman.
Earlier in October, a poll commissioned by researchers at New York University revealed that .
The survey, which sampled the opinions of over 3,000 respondents - half of them being Jewish - also found that Jews as an ethnic group will support Obama by almost 30 percent more than other white, non-Hispanic voters.
The poll sought to gauge the importance Jewish voters attach to Israel as a consideration in whom they would vote for, with some surprising results. Of all the Jews surveyed who said that Israel is of “high” importance, 63 percent said they would vote for Obama. In contrast, only 42 percent of Jews who said Israel has “very high” importance said they planned to vote for Obama.
Not surprisingly, the Jewish vote swings heavily in McCain’s favor among the Orthodox. According to the survey, the Arizona senator can count on support from 75 percent of Orthodox Jewish voters.
After Tuesday, one way or the other, some pollsters and pundits will have some explaining to do.
It may be those who conducted surveys showing the presidential race tightening to a virtual dead heat in recent days.
Or it may be those in the larger group whose polls have shown Barack Obama comfortably ahead of John McCain, and whose focus has been on not whether the Democrat will win but by how much.
Charlie Cook, long one of Washington's most venerated political wonks, belongs firmly in the latter category. In his latest column for the National Journal, he opines that McCain "probably can't win without divine intervention." In a tease to his subscription-only newsletter, he writes, "Since early September this race has shifted rather dramatically in Obama's favor. … At this stage, the most relevant question would seem to be: 'How big will the train wreck be for the Republican Party up and down the ballot in November.' "
But let's give Cook this — if need be, he's prepared to eat crow, big time.
During a Friday evening appearance on MSNBC, he had this to say about how he would come to grips with a McCain come-from-behind victory: "I'm going to be asking, 'Paper or plastic.' Or, 'Do you want fries with that.' "
Others might similarly need to contemplate a career change.
Downballot Senate Republicans are warning of Democrats controlling the Washington trifecta with a Senate supermajority:
WASHINGTON — In the waning days of the 2008 elections, Republicans from the top of the ticket on down are making a remarkable appeal: Vote for me, because the rest of my party seems headed for defeat.
A spate of new ads paid for by the National Republican Senatorial Committee are premised on Barack Obama beating John McCain. Some even say that Democrats could pick up enough Senate seats to have a filibuster-proof majority of 60 votes. McCain, meanwhile, is arguing that a vote for him is a check against a Democrat-dominated Congress.
“Sending Jeff Merkley to the U.S. Senate could give one party a blank check … again,” says an announcer in an ad for Sen. Gordon Smith of Oregon, a Republican in a close race with Merkley, a Democrat. “Especially in this economy, Oregon needs an independent voice in the U.S. Senate.”
In North Carolina, where Republican Sen. Elizabeth Dole is at risk of losing to Democrat Kay Hagan, the announcer intones, “Who’s the Senate race really about? Hagan or Dole? Neither one. It’s about liberals in Washington. They want complete control of the government … The left wants 60 votes in the Senate.”
In Louisiana, another ad paid for by the Republican committee said of Democratic Sen. Mary Landrieu: “Landrieu votes with Barack Obama 81% of the time. Landrieu endorsed Obama. … Don’t give Washington liberals complete control; don’t give them a blank check.”
