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At The New Republican, this piece speculates why Republicans can’t successfully court minorities.
My view has been that the GOP has problems in this are for three primary reasons:
1) GOP doesn’t court the same special interest groups–unions, etc. hold political clout in the Black community.
2) Welfare is like a drug; once you have a socio-economic group hooked, it’s hard to get them off it. To gain points among African-Americans and Latinos the GOP will have to successfully discredit the welfare state, a difficult task indeed.
3) Culture - While many Blacks and Latinos have similar views with the GOP on social issues, there is a prevailing culture that Democrats are friendly to minorities while Republicans (especially southerners) are hostile. This may or may not be hard to combat.
My general impression is that people tend to vote where the money is. Welfare-funded underclasses form tight and problematic voting blocks. Getting a sizable portion of the minority vote will be difficult. But shifting even 10-15% of the Black/Latino vote to the GOP will cause major problems to the Democrats in federal elections.
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